Birth of a Nation
I have just finished reading “Battle Cry of Freedom” by James McPherson. This is a history of the American Civil War and as an outsider there were a number of real surprises for me in this history.
One was the scale of the battles, the ferocity of the fighting and the magnitude of the casualties – some 700,000 killed. This is more casualties than America has endured in all the other wars it has been engaged in put together, including the two world wars!! Nothing had been seen like it before in the world up to that time. In effect it was the first modern war and a precursor to what European armies would face in the trench warfare of WWI.
Unfortunately for the European fighting man I am not sure that many European generels paid as much attention as they ought to have done to the lessons learned by American commanders during the Civil War.
Another aspect that was a surprise to me was that it was the Democratic party that was the political cheerleader of slavery, particularly in the South but also in the North, and that it was the Republicans who had the more modern, enlightened view on that peculiar institution. It’s ironic that it is the Democratic party that achieved the milestone of the first black preseident of the United States.
Another striking thing for me was the vehemence with which southern politicians and opinion makers defended slavery and the lengths they went to to rationalize it as being in the best interests of black people themselves. I appreciate it was a long time ago but I think even for the time it must have been quite breathtaking.
In reading this history one can better appreciate how the American Civil War was the crucible in which the modern, industrialised and egalitarian United States that we know was forged and that it was this war that set the country on an accelerated course to becoming the dominant industrial and military power in the world in the first half of the following century.
Thoroughly enjoyed it.
I AM a Marathoner
The sweat dries into crystals of salt on my cheeks, the searing pain in the arches of my feet shoots up the front of my shins each time my foot strikes the asphalt. The impact of each stride reverberates through my body and into my skull “boom”, “boom”, “boom”. My every joint is aching, screaming out for relief. I’m thirsty, I’m sore and I’m tired.
But it doesn’t matter – I’m a marathoner and I’m going to finish this race.
I can see the finish line up ahead. I can see my wife and children waving to me, urging me on. I’ve got 26 miles behind me – just over 300 yards to go and I push on through the pain “boom”, “boom”, “boom”.
People in the crowd shout words of encouragement, the man on the megaphone is congratulating the finishers up ahead. My mate Gabriel who’s running with me taps me on the shoulder – “come on Paddy last push now”. My God I’m nearly there – just a couple of hundred yards to go.
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I open my eyes.
I’m alone in Shanganagh Park, – running - it’s raining sideways, I’m soaked to the skin, it’s getting dark. My stopwatch beeps and I look down – 19 miles done just one to go then the training is over for tonight.
I’m a first time marathoner, the race doesn’t happen until 31st October – running the movie in my head of the finishing line is just a little trick I’ve learned to push through the pain and exhaustion on the long training runs.
You know what? It works!
When I started out on this, the idea of running 26.2 miles seemed an impossible dream but the more I play that movie in my head, the more real it becomes, the more I expect it to come true, the more I can feel it, hear it, smell it. I now know that I will finish the marathon come what may.
Using this little trick to dig in when the going gets tough is one of three little lessons I’ve learned in training for the marathon that work in real life too.
Running movies of where you want to be, what you want to do, how you want things to turn out gets you ready for success and gets you through the rough patches.
The other two lessons are:
- that to reach your long term goals quicker you have actually got to SLOW DOWN! And…
- that rest and recovery are just as important as running.
Let me explain:
When training, most people will tend to run at a pace that they find moderately hard because it makes them feel that they are pushing themselves and doing some good. The trouble is, this pace is too fast to build endurance and too slow to build strength and speed.
It is in fact a black hole that leads to rapid burn out. When I started out, this is what I did. I couldn’t get beyond 8 miles without feeling absolutely shattered. I had to learn to run at a slower pace than what I was naturally inclined to run at – then I started to go further.
Marathons are about endurance – as a first timer you are going to be out on the course for 4 hours or more. If you go too fast too soon you will burn up all your glycogen reserves. Then you will have to start burning up your body fat. This is what is known as “hitting the wall”. This is a physically and psychologically devastating experience. So to reach the goal of completing the marathon you have got to slow down.
Likewise in real life, rushing around trying to get everything done, trying to be all things to all people, fretting about others being ahead of us in life this is a recipe for early burn out.
So slow down and run your own race!
Rest for the marathon runner is the time when muscle, tendons, cartilage and bone repair themselves and become stronger. I admit to feeling slightly guilty on rest days – there always seems to be a little voice saying. “ah, maybe I’ll just go for a short run to keep things ticking over”.
This is a big mistake and a recipe for disaster. Rest and recovery is essential insurance against injury.
Likewise in real life, lack of proper rest, lack of “me” time is at the root of many physical and mental breakdowns and lost opportunities. There is no need to feel guilty or selfish about rest and personal time, because if you break down you will be in no position to help those you love. This is why in the safety drill on the plane they say to put your own mask on first before trying to help others.
Preparing for the marathon, if you don’t rest well not only is it possible that you may not finish the race, you may not even make it to the starting line in the first place.
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I close my eyes again.
“God I’m so tired.”
What a beautiful day it is – only 200 yards to go.
“I’m so sore”.
What a great crowd – only 100 to go.
“So thirsty” – Just 50 to go.
Boom, boom, boom. Yes, yes, yes. I’ve done – I’ve done it.
I really AM a marathoner now.
The 80:20 Rule
The 80:20 Rule
The 80:20 Rule, the Law of the Vital Few or the Principle of Factor Sparsity states that for many events 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.
When something is shared among a large number of participants there is always a more or less equal sharing out of the something among the participants.
In the case where 50% of the something is taken by 50% of the participants – this means that every participant has an equal share.
In the case where 99.99% of the something is taken by 1% of the participants – this means that very few participants take nearly all of the something
The 80:20 rule is a special case of this where 80% of the something is shared among just 20% of the participants. This is a situation skewed in favour of a relatively small group of participants. Mathematically, there is nothing special about the 80:20 situation but it just so happens that many real world systems do appear to correspond to an unequal distribution similar to this.
Why is this so? Why is it important? What are the implications? Well let’s see.
A Little Bit of History
It was Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian engineer, sociologist, economist and philosopher who first observed and wrote about the phenomenon.
In 1906 he noticed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the population. For this reason, the 80:20 Rule is also known as Pareto’s Law or the Pareto Principle.
Pareto went on to analyse data sets on wealth distribution from different times and places back as far as 15th century Switzerland and spanning regions as diverse as Italy, Ireland, England and Russia. He reliably observed the same pattern again and again.
In 1989 the principle was still alive and well in world income distribution with the top 20% of individuals in the world enjoying 82.7% of the world’s income, the next 20% enjoying 11.8% and the remainder enjoying an exponentially decreasing amount thereafter.
Not fair, you might say. Maybe not, be that as it may Pareto concluded that what he had observed was a natural phenomenon and not just a result of human greed or malice.
Complex simulation models with rules defined only for the behaviour at the level of individuals have been developed in which the 80:20 rule has been observed as a naturally emergent property of the interaction of the individual agents.
In economics and sociology some of the conclusions that have been drawn form the 80:20 rule have proved to be contentious in the ongoing political arguments of left and right about wealth creation and redistribution and no doubt that debate will continue unabated.
Applications
In less contentious fields of endeavour, the principle has been observed consistently in many natural systems. Applications are widespread in decision making and task prioritizations in fields as diverse as:
- Computer Science (fixing 20% of bugs will eliminate 80% of errors)
- Product Profile Optimization (20% of products generate 80% of turnover)
- Customer service (20% of customers cause 80% of customer service headaches)
- Health Care (20% of patients use 80% of the services)
- Criminology (20% of criminals commit 80% of the crimes)
- Project Risk Management (20% of project risks have 80% of impact)
- The Dating Game (80% of one sex want to date 20% of the other sex and vice versa)
Identifying the 20% in each case can have huge positive impacts on the efficiency in the use of resources and on the effectiveness of outcomes.
Simple tool – powerful results.
Good old signore Pareto – grazie a Lei.
India: First Impressions
The Red Fort, Delhi
On arrival at hotel in New Delhi I was taken aback by the level of security at the entrance gate. There was a team of five or six security guards that checked the underneath of the car and under the boot and the bonnet for explosives.
I hadn’t experienced such high levels of security at any hotel before, not in Europe, North America, South America, East Asia or even in the Gulf staes. On enquiry, it was explaned that since the 26/11 Mumbai attacks in 2008 on the Taj Mahal Palace and other locations, the threat of further attacks is being taken very seriously.
Hotel was great, all the modern services, Wifi and so on. Had a wonderful chicken curry and steamed rice – Indian food is tremendous! Just yards away from the hotel under the motorway bridge, there were people living in ramshackle shelters. So while India is making huge strides forward and tens of millions are moving out of poverty and joining the middle classes, there is still a huge challenge ahead for the country in conquering the root causes of extreme poverty.
Having been held up in Europe due to bad weather on the way out, I had actually arrived in Delhi a day behind schedule and therefore had to reschedule my internal flight from Delhi to Chandigarh with the airline Kingfisher for the next morning. This proved to be a fraught process which after three long phone calls to the Kingfisher call centre eventually seemed to be sorted out – or so I thought.
Upon arrival at the check in desk the next morning I was told that I was not booked on the flight after all. After long arguments and insistence on my part they eventually determined after frantic bouts of keyboard clicking that I was in fact booked. I rushed through security and on to the departure gate and I was the very last person onto the flight which they had held for me.
So while they were initially intransigent in asserting that I was not booked on the flight, in the end they were very flexible in waiting for me once they did acknowledge that I was booked onto the flight. I am still not sure if this was a good thing or a bad thing. Be that as it may I made it to Chandigarh on time – more about that later.
First impressions then, without making any value judgments on what I experienced can be summarised as follows – high security, international standard hotel service, visible poverty, great food, questionable organization yet great flexibility.
All in all, an exhilarating first taste!!
Patrick
India Superpower of the Future
Image via Wikipedia
India is a country of superlatives. With an area of 3.2 million square kilometres, a population of almost 1.2 billion and a $3.5 trillion dollar economy, India is set to become one of the major players on the world stage in the years to come.
It is a country of many contrasts, it has a modern, fast-growing economy that has lifted millions out of poverty in recent times and yet still struggles with major infrastructural challenges and a legacy of poverty.
Culturally, politically and socially it is a hugely diverse country and yet at the same time Indians are extremely patriotric and justifiably proud of the achievements of their country.
This weekend I will be travelling to India for the first time. It will be a short and busy business trip on this occasion but one I hope that will give me a first taste of this amazing country to whet my appetite for the future.
Over the next few days, I will be posting my impressions and experiences here on Daly Thoughts as I begin to get a first hand view of this superpower of the future.
How will Ireland’s Austerity Measures Impact Families and Businesses?
Ireland
Everyone will feel the impact of this but not equally. I believe that it will very much depend on the start point of the family or the business as this change begins to roll out.
Those who are dependent on the state for their main source income have been sheltered for the most part from the full effects of the recession over the last two and a half years and these will be the people whose income will now decrease most as the IMF enforces severe cuts in public spending.
These groups include public sector employees, pensioners and welfare recipients. Many public sector employees will lose their jobs as the numbers are cut back by maybe 25,000 or more. These groups did extremely well out of the boom years when government spending outstripped even the furious rate of growth of the economy from the mid 90s through to about 2006.
A recent benchmark comparison of public sector pay versus private sector pay has shown that the former, yes the former, earn about 30% more and also enjoy very generous state-guaranteed pensions as compared to their private-sector equivalents. Welfare spending more than doubled during the boom years even though we were at full employment. So it is here that the greatest impact will be felt.
In the private sector, after two and a half years of sustained contraction in the economy most of the reductions in headcount (unemployment jumped from 4% to 14%) and salary happened long ago as those well-managed businesses adjusted to the new reality and the poorly managed ones failed.
In fact, many businesses are leaner, fitter and much more competitive now than they were in 2007. Testament to this is the fact that our exporting sector is booming and our rate of increase in industrial productivity is double the EU average. Therefore many of these will continue to prosper and benefit from the reduction of the cost base across the economy and the loosening up of the labour market. Just to note that the export sector is hughly important to Ireland because we export 80% of everything that we produce.
Tax increases will affect everyone in employment of course and will disincentivize any recovery in consumer spending. Even those who have secure jobs in well-run, export-oriented companies will likely pay down debt or save rather than spend because of the level of fear and uncertainty that exists. Therefore businesses that depend solely on the Irish consumer will continue to find it very challenging indeed.
In summary then, I think that we will see some growth returning to the economy as a whole in 2011 led by the exporting sector but with unemployment not reducing very much at all for a couple of years, maybe even rising further before it begins to decline.
People will not spend but rather pay down debt or save. It is also highly likely that there will be a wave of mortgage defaults as young families who purchased homes at the top of the market in 2005/06/07 are tipped over the edge by losing their jobs or the impact of tax increases or rising interest rates.
All in all it is going to be a very challenging year. It will take maybe 3 to 5 years to get things turned around depending on how the world economy develops and what deal the Irish authorities can do with the IMF/ECB/EU Commission troika and whether or not real economic growth can be achieved to pull the country out of the hole and ease the pain for all.
